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      03-06-2021, 04:26 PM   #1
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G80 M3 and G82 M4 Sales Predictions by Region and Model (From M GmbH)

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Well, they haven't really said anything new in this presentation, but I found these two slides to be pretty interesting:
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      03-06-2021, 05:11 PM   #2
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41% of expected sales in the US, but let's design it for the Asian market? <shakes head>
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      03-06-2021, 05:36 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robopp View Post
41% of expected sales in the US, but let's design it for the Asian market? <shakes head>
M CEO Flasch has mentioned they're seeing a global trend, with emphasis on North America, that people want more aggressive-looking vehicles. Also basically said it goes against what the typical German buyer wants, i.e. more of a wolf in sheep's clothing.
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      03-06-2021, 05:50 PM   #4
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BMW only target 20% of their customers and don't care about others, U.S had the highest market share and they simply don't really matter.
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      03-06-2021, 07:59 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dms-01 View Post
Yeah what is up with that?
Shifting relevance and importance of Chinese market vs American market. Before global power shifts, you should expect to see more markets catering to the audiences that are growing to be the most influential.
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      03-06-2021, 08:29 PM   #6
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The US market as a whole is very, very different than the US enthusiast market. Enthusiasts live in a bubble.
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      03-06-2021, 08:30 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swagon View Post
M CEO Flasch has mentioned they're seeing a global trend, with emphasis on North America, that people want more aggressive-looking vehicles. Also basically said it goes against what the typical German buyer wants, i.e. more of a wolf in sheep's clothing.
It's a scape goat comment from ppl that can not accept the grill that it was designed for the Chinese market... it was not. large grills are alive and well in the US.

Take a look at the pickup trucks for example ... massive grills and they aren't even sold in Asia.

Large prominent front end design is a part of mainstream car market demand in North America. It's only the tiny shoe box of traditionalists that cannot accept it.
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      03-06-2021, 09:32 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xlover View Post
It's a scape goat comment from ppl that can not accept the grill that it was designed for the Chinese market... it was not. large grills are alive and well in the US.

Take a look at the pickup trucks for example ... massive grills and they aren't even sold in Asia.

Large prominent front end design is a part of mainstream car market demand in North America. It's only the tiny shoe box of traditionalists that cannot accept it.
I do agree and absolutely love most of the large front grill designs. Absolutely love the Audi look, but absolutely hate the Lexus and BMW big grill look. This design reminds me of the 2007ish Acura TL grill that Acura quickly refreshed a year later because everyone thought it was ugly.
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      03-06-2021, 10:03 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWG80M3 View Post
Shifting relevance and importance of Chinese market vs American market. Before global power shifts, you should expect to see more markets catering to the audiences that are growing to be the most influential.
China is already the biggest market for BMW and by a big margin, but I don't think it will ever overtake US as the biggest buyer for M cars. Now with 10% up markup, M3/4 sells for almost 200k dollors OTD in China. The regulation and tax are insane. Doesn't seem like a wise decision to prioritize Asian need, at least for the M cars.
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      03-06-2021, 11:04 PM   #10
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... and this evolves into a grill discussion while nobody is bringing up the >60% expected take rate for M xDrive! It looks like I've got company!
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      03-06-2021, 11:31 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3AWD View Post
... and this evolves into a grill discussion while nobody is bringing up the >60% expected take rate for M xDrive! It looks like I've got company!
Watch this becoming the most sold M3/M4 despite being launched in the midst of a pandemic and with BEVs eating into the luxury market with ever-increasing vengeance. The MT, RWD, AWD, Touring and overall increased excellence across segments should pay dividends. Grills be damned
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      03-06-2021, 11:54 PM   #12
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Out of curiosity, does anyone know where BMW hosted their early shows this year of the M3/M4 and for what audiences?
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      03-07-2021, 06:04 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by M3AWD View Post
... and this evolves into a grill discussion while nobody is bringing up the >60% expected take rate for M xDrive! It looks like I've got company!
For sure, I am curious too if we will see a significant bump in allocations when the awd models are released, aligning with the above ratios
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      03-07-2021, 06:29 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3AWD View Post
... and this evolves into a grill discussion while nobody is bringing up the >60% expected take rate for M xDrive! It looks like I've got company!
Ooooh i thought your M3AWD meant Alpine White Diesel... Now i get it
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      03-07-2021, 09:51 AM   #15
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Pretty low expected take rates for the manual transmission. I expect most of those will be American sales.
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      03-07-2021, 10:12 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by akhbhaat View Post
The US market as a whole is very, very different than the US enthusiast market. Enthusiasts live in a bubble.
Thank you!!!
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      03-07-2021, 10:13 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamboni View Post
BMW only target 20% of their customers and don't care about others, U.S had the highest market share and they simply don't really matter.
You do realize these are projections right? Furthermore, projections for just two models out of their fleet. The Asian market is by far their biggest market and thatís since 2019.
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      03-07-2021, 10:18 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robopp View Post
41% of expected sales in the US, but let's design it for the Asian market? <shakes head>
Man they are really pushing the "we don't care about customer opinion" to another level. Serious ego issues in play here.
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      03-07-2021, 10:23 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irunalot View Post
Man they are really pushing the "we don't care about customer opinion" to another level. Serious ego issues in play here.
I don't think the issue is "they don't care about customer opinion", I think it's that the customer opinion they care about is different than the one they cared about before.

These two articles are definitely only anecdotal and written with a lot of loaded messaging, but still provide some interesting things to consider:

"In 2020, Asian economies will become larger than the rest of the world combined - here's how" - July, 2019

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...asian-century/

"In China, Women Buy Up Luxury Cars as a Symbol of Their Newfound Power" - August, 2017

https://jingdaily.com/women-hold-hal...cars-in-china/
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      03-07-2021, 11:36 AM   #20
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From an enthusiast's view this tale won't be told by new car sales numbers it will be told by resale value in the enthusiast market in 5 to 10 years. My bet is the G80 fares very poorly in that metric. The "gotta have the newest ride" crowd will be all over this car but IMO it's going to be more E60M5 than E39M5 in the long run except maybe 6MT.

BMW's focus with these new designs is making coin upfront.
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      03-07-2021, 12:04 PM   #21
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The M4 now looks like a $120k car and you can have it for sub $80k. They are going to be popular today and as resell later if they are reliable which they should be (very) borrowing a proven engine from the X3M and a proven driveline from the M5 (transmission and Xdrive).
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      03-07-2021, 12:05 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robopp View Post
41% of expected sales in the US, but let's design it for the Asian market? <shakes head>
I think the bigger roadblock for sales is not the grill. It is the onslaught of BEVs. A lot of casual enthusiasts and more importantly casual buyers aren't interested in the M3/M4 because ICE is on a downward curve from an automobile evolution perspective. Why drop high dollar on a technology that will depreciate faster than ever before? You can now get a Model S LR that is faster, around the same price point and that will depreciate much slower.
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