[Lightngsvt]

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I've posted already that Im looking at a white/black base M3, 6MT, with only shadowline and Exec. pkg. The car has been on the lot for for at least 3 weeks now, and started at $5k ADM. They've offered $4k ADP, I might be willing to go $2500 since I need to turn in my current 340 lease. I know people here are enthusiasts, and the M3 is an enthusiast's car but seems this car isn't moving very quickly in this market. Most of the builds I see here are full-boat w/individual paint, etc, so basically the cream of the crop.

I'm also thinking of doing BMW Select since it's almost $300mo less than leasing, but I still think about the balloon. Obviously, your cars will always be more desirable, but a car like this is also ~$25k cheaper too. The balloon will be around $45k, do you feel this car will be worth at least that amount even if the market levels out again?

It's not looking like the markets will stabilize until at least some time in 23, possibly. There will be the price increase for new cars starting in 22, which is good, but there is the LCI in 23 which could affect resale of the original G80's. While a few grand loss wont hurt me, I still hate the idea of not at least breaking even. But even worst case I cant imagine the car to be worth any less than $40k.

[Draper]

IMHO, we're going to see inflated values for quite some time.

New supply is low right now, so the availability of 3yo cars in 3 years is going to be low as well.

If the car I wanted was sitting on a lot today I'd be more than happy to pay $4K ADM.

[snareman]

What's ADM and ADP?

Although this is an enthusiast forum and there are some people here getting individual colors I think the majority here and even more so out in the world are getting stock colors. Car forums probably have a bit of a skewed group of buyers.

Hard to know when things are going to stabilize with the market and supply. I just read that carplay and Android auto are the latest cuts related to the chip shortage

[KnightedBMW]

Originally Posted by snareman

What's ADM and ADP?

Although this is an enthusiast forum and there are some people here getting individual colors I think the majority here and even more so out in the world are getting stock colors.

Hard to know when things are going to stabilize with the market and supply. I just read that carplay and Android auto are the latest cuts related to the chip shortage

Additional Dealer Markup (Profit).

[bmw noob]

As mentioned above, no supply today means no supply of used cars in 3 years. That said, don't expect anything higher than traditional valuations in the future. At best, a 3 yr old car with 30-45k miles will likely fetch around 60% on a dealers lot. However, that is not what you would be able to get in a private sale or for trade in.

Also, things like individual paints do not necessarily increase value at all, and in some cases actually hurt resale.

While an absolute stripper model of some cars may hold their value less than a "luxury version" (think base kia with cloth seats, crappy radio, no nav/electronic goodies, steel wheels, etc), even a base M3 is still relatively posh. I don't think specific options, or lack thereof, would dramatically impact resale value negatively, though having certain options (ceramic brakes?) May entice specific buyers more.

[NightWriter]

Originally Posted by Lightngsvt

I've posted already that Im looking at a white/black base M3, 6MT, with only shadowline and Exec. pkg. The car has been on the lot for for at least 3 weeks now, and started at $5k ADM. They've offered $4k ADP, I might be willing to go $2500 since I need to turn in my current 340 lease. I know people here are enthusiasts, and the M3 is an enthusiast's car but seems this car isn't moving very quickly in this market. Most of the builds I see here are full-boat w/individual paint, etc, so basically the cream of the crop.

First, don't take what people on these forums order as the common use-case, since it's definitely not. Probably <1% of BMW orders include Individual options. Get what you like and what's important to you.

Second, no one's got a crystal ball about what the market is going to look like in three years. Too many variables and unknowns.

Third, dealers (sellers) in general have the upper hand in this market, but I saw another 6MT that sat at a local dealership (BMW of Silver Spring, MD) for nearly two months as they steadily lowered the price periodically. Given the approaching end-of-month and end-of-year, I'm speculating that if you show up with an open checkbook and a serious offer for $1000 above MSRP, they will be tempted to take it. Prepare to walk out if needed, but be honest with yourself about what your bottom-line best figure is. (Personally, I'm opposed to going above MSRP, though I understand the rationale some people have in this market.)

[Lightngsvt]

Thanks for the replies everyone. I realize this forum will be skewed, but even on the used market enthusiasts are more likely to search out and possibly pay more for a car they want. I also realize there is no crystal ball, 3 years ago who'd have thought we'd be in the market we are in today? I thought my $700/mo lease was a bit high on a $62k 340, but now an equivalent car is $950/mo to lease. So, to put it another way, if the market was back to normal would it be wise to assume a 3yr old M3 w/40k miles would be worth ~62% of MSRP?

I just looked up BMW Silver Springs since you mentioned they kept lowering the price. They don't list any new M3's, but curiously have 4- used 21 and 22 M3's. Is it me, or does that seem a bit odd?

[dohvb1]

A dealership near me has a used 2021 M4 comp with just over 2000 miles on it. It has the original build sheet with it and MSRP was $83500. They are asking $97800 for it. It’s almost identical spec to the 2022 I got from the same dealership in different city at MSRP.

[BGM-M3COMP]

I don't think we're going to see the used market the way it is today, 3 years from now.

The only way we could see something like that, is if we get a second round of the pandemic. Meaning a global shutdown. This means businesses close down again. The economy will turn to shit. Maybe good for those who will keep their job and assets that way as the economy is recovering again (like it is now), you can capitalize on it.

Also just note. You only live once. If you see a car you like TODAY, go get it TODAY. Tomorrow is never promised.

My good friend of over 20 years has been at his job for nearly all the 20 years i've known him. He was making 175k.

He lost his job last year at the peak of the pandemic. Imagine that? You have a long term job of almost 20 years. Making good money at 175k. You have your toys, whatever it is. Nice house. The kids get their toys. And then one day, "sorry we have to let you go".

He has a job again but it's in a different field and he's making around 60k. According to him.

I'm not saying go nuts and get the most expensive car out there. I'm saying these days, you have to count your blessings. Nothing is promised tomorrow.

[edofloat]

Think I would be inclined to tell them to sell @ MSRP or you will turn in your current lease at a different BMW store. In fact, a different store may be willing to cut you a check to get your car instead of the current dealer. Worth a few calls, most stores probably want your lease turn-in so they can certify it and have something to sell.

[madpistol]

I just checked online prices of RWD M340i, and they're about $2k above what it says my buyout price is on my current M340i lease. I'm very tempted to call a few dealers and see what it would take to order an M3 Comp and trade in my current lease.

[Lightngsvt]

Originally Posted by madpistol

I just checked online prices of RWD M340i, and they're about $2k above what it says my buyout price is on my current M340i lease. I'm very tempted to call a few dealers and see what it would take to order an M3 Comp and trade in my current lease.

Really? I've talked to 4 dealers, 2- said it's worth less than buyout, and the other 2- said they'd buy it but it's basically be a wash. I think the ZHP package isn't offering any increased value on this end of the lease compared to a normal 340i with M-Sport.

[NightWriter]

Originally Posted by Lightngsvt

I just looked up BMW Silver Springs since you mentioned they kept lowering the price. They don't list any new M3's, but curiously have 4- used 21 and 22 M3's. Is it me, or does that seem a bit odd?

Yeah the 6MT I'm referring to was lightly used and lightly spec'd and isn't there anymore. MSRP was $78k (new), and was originally listed at $84k... which wound down to $79k by the time it sold.

[edofloat]

Originally Posted by Lightngsvt

Really? I've talked to 4 dealers, 2- said it's worth less than buyout, and the other 2- said they'd buy it but it's basically be a wash. I think the ZHP package isn't offering any increased value on this end of the lease compared to a normal 340i with M-Sport.

It's crazy to think that many dealers don't want the car unless they can make a huge gross. I haven't seen any cars for sale anywhere close to the residuals.

Not like I'm telling them what they should make but when there are effectively no used cars to buy. You'd think they would be willing to make less and hope they get another trade-in from a buyer who finances with them.

Everything is still wierd.

[Lightngsvt]

Originally Posted by NightWriter

Yeah the 6MT I'm referring to was lightly used and lightly spec'd and isn't there anymore. MSRP was $78k (new), and was originally listed at $84k... which wound down to $79k by the time it sold.

It was used and still sold for $1k over MSRP? I hope the car market doesn't crash like the housing market did in 06-09.

Originally Posted by edofloat

It's crazy to think that many dealers don't want the car unless they can make a huge gross. I haven't seen any cars for sale anywhere close to the residuals.

Not like I'm telling them what they should make but when there are effectively no used cars to buy. You'd think they would be willing to make less and hope they get another trade-in from a buyer who finances with them.

Everything is still wierd.

I know. When my dealer said the car was worth less than the residual I asked them why that was since they had 2- listed on their website for $7k more than my residual with roughly the same mileage. Of course, I never got a clear answer.

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by Lightngsvt

It was used and still sold for $1k over MSRP? I hope the car market doesn't crash like the housing market did in 06-09.




I know. When my dealer said the car was worth less than the residual I asked them why that was since they had 2- listed on their website for $7k more than my residual with roughly the same mileage. Of course, I never got a clear answer.

Dealerships being dealerships. Obviously we don't expect them to pay us what the cars are worth because they have to turn a profit. HOWEVER, we do expect fair market value for our trade, and on a like-new or lightly used M340i, that equates to about $3k-5k below selling price. Usually, that can be made up in the trade, especially since many used M340i's are at or above the price of BRAND NEW M340is on dealer lots... because dealers can't get the brand new ones. And brand new M3/M4s are going for $10k above sticker in some places.

It makes no sense to me. You would think a sale is a sale in this market. Moving cars makes them look better to BMW HQ.

All I know is that if I don't get my next car for MSRP (it will be a custom order), I ain't buying.

[BRAKE!]

If BMW's own residual values are of any indication, it will be worth 54-57% of what it is today. I'm guessing that they are conservative with that value given they don't want to want to lose $ on their lease turn-ins in 3 years.

There are factors that may decrease the value of the car - ie LCI coming out, people moving towards electric vehicles, market corrections, polarizing design, someone hits your car (hope not), etc. On the other hand, there are some features that may hedge against a big drop - you are ordering a manual, it is a M3 at the end of the day...

But having said this, this is all speculation. No one knows the answer. Get what you want and you'll at least enjoy it for the 3 years you have it. At the end of the day, this is a car not your retirement account

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by Lightngsvt

So, to put it another way, if the market was back to normal would it be wise to assume a 3yr old M3 w/40k miles would be worth ~62% of MSRP?

Retail price, sure.

Originally Posted by BRAKE!

If BMW's own residual values are of any indication, it will be worth 54-57% of what it is today. I'm guessing that they are conservative with that value given they don't want to want to lose $ on their lease turn-ins in 3 years.

Ditto. And as @BRAKE! wrote (snipped) that as a manual, your car will likely do better than average.

It seems to me that new BMW manuals don't sell nearly as quickly as they do when used. I think there's a much bigger demand for them at half the price, where most enthusiasts are (saving up for those track mods).

As others have noted, no one really knows, you only live once, life is a crap-shoot anyway.

What happened to the 2 series order?

[TexasEd]

The used and new car markets will continue to be skewed higher because of supply chain issues and worker/factory slowdown due to Corona. Corona and its variants will continue for the next couple of years in my opinion. There is no reason why the variants will not continue to evolve since a certain percentage of folks will not be vaccinated.

I paid $24k over msrp for my 2021 C8 Z51; and was lucky to have ordered and purchased my 2022 M4 at msrp. I've recently looked at Audi R8's where the 2022 models with msrp of $168k are being listed at dealerships for $240k. I've also noticed that many dealerships are now posting a statement that "dealerships may price their vehicles above msrp". One used to never see that statement but now it is common.

[barryc365]

I think you would be totally fine with a $45k balloon in 3 years time and come out ahead possibly, but if it's the kind of thing that would keep you up at night maybe just lease.

I would do the balloon, put the $300 saved each month aside. At the end of 3 years you have >$10k buffer built up so in the unlikely scenario the car is only worth $35k, you have your money set aside to cover it and your no worse off

[Lightngsvt]

Originally Posted by LuvMyE92

Retail price, sure.

Ditto. And as @BRAKE! wrote (snipped) that as a manual, your car will likely do better than average.

What happened to the 2 series order?

So if the retail price of the car is around 60%, I'm guessing trade/private sale would be what, 52-55%?

I still have the deposit on the M240, I asked that dealer if they could get me an M3, they said no. They said they had an M4 allocation going into production in January that was still configurable, but I don't have the time to wait. The M240 got to the port in GA on 11/9, was damaged on 11/16, and is just stuck in limbo with no idea when it will ship. My deposit is refundable.

Originally Posted by TexasEd

The used and new car markets will continue to be skewed higher because of supply chain issues and worker/factory slowdown due to Corona. Corona and its variants will continue for the next couple of years in my opinion. There is no reason why the variants will not continue to evolve since a certain percentage of folks will not be vaccinated.

I paid $24k over msrp for my 2021 C8 Z51; and was lucky to have ordered and purchased my 2022 M4 at msrp. I've recently looked at Audi R8's where the 2022 models with msrp of $168k are being listed at dealerships for $240k. I've also noticed that many dealerships are now posting a statement that "dealerships may price their vehicles above msrp". One used to never see that statement but now it is common.

I agree, COVID isn't going away anytime soon. Hopefully, the new pills turn out to be an effective treatment and keep people out of the hospital and alive.

You had to pay $24k over sticker to get a Vette? Is there any chance you'll get that money back? That's a sincere question because I've never paid over MSRP for a car before, I even got my Boxster for 5% discount, so I don't have that experience.

Originally Posted by barryc365

I think you would be totally fine with a $45k balloon in 3 years time and come out ahead possibly, but if it's the kind of thing that would keep you up at night maybe just lease.

I would do the balloon, put the $300 saved each month aside. At the end of 3 years you have >$10k buffer built up so in the unlikely scenario the car is only worth $35k, you have your money set aside to cover it and your no worse off

It won't keep me up at night, maybe just in the last month.

Putting the difference aside is a good idea and good insurance. I can't imagine a world where a 3-year old M3 could be worth less than $35k.