[fvfvsix]

Call me crazy, but I think the chip shortage is past "peak shortage". I've been in the business for 22 years, and I see things starting to right themselves at the manufacturer level.

Also, for those who care - most semiconductors are not produced in a single plant. Most chip companies have separate facilities for Fab (the most skilled labor intensive) and test/assembly (commonly outsourced), which kinda complicates the process when shortages hit. The difference between this one and past supply disruptions are that we're seeing is that I've seen the assembly plants run out of wire, glue, and plastic. Those are starting to come back now.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by Ibiza

Just received my G83 allocation at $1000 less wholesale cost and buy rate MF on the east coast. Just need to have a long term, super tight relationship and be an easy, loyal customer to deal with.

My guess is that your sweetheart deal is the exception rather than the norm.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by james550imanual

I work in purchasing for Toyota so I have the joy of dealing directly with these chipmakers.

To put it shortly, they have everyone by the balls. Even China doesn't have the tech to make their own…making a semiconductor plant is highly difficult. Making a nuclear bomb is probably easier.
When Ford has to cut back on its core f-150 trucks, that basically means every and all options have been exhausted. The war room when that decision was made would have been a sight to see.

Also, switching to a substitute "chip" will require years of testing as well…these chips are such an integral part of how your car runs. Car industry is notorious for speed of adopting changes that adds risk.

2023/2024 is when we should see things level off.

Do u see Tesla immune to this?

Some folks say Tesla are sold out till Q1/Q2 2022, but I do wonder if Tesla has no car to deliver till then, or they really can outsmart everyone else to sustain full capacity with their opaque supply chain(s).

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by barad55

So which one sells for top dollar due to this chip shortage. Used Manual or used Comp?

All used cars are selling at top dollars.

E.g. a 2013-2014 328i base with 70k-80k miles can sell for $20k-ish, that is unprecedented.

[fvfvsix]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

Do u see Tesla immune to this?

Some folks say Tesla are sold out till Q1/Q2 2022, but I do wonder if Tesla has no car to deliver till then, or they really can outsmart everyone else to sustain full capacity with their opaque supply chain(s).

You gotta remember how few cars Tesla actually makes. I suspect they also sometimes play "fast and loose" with requiring Q100 certification and full temp range specs on non-critical systems.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by teombe

Call me crazy, but I think the chip shortage is past "peak shortage". I've been in the business for 22 years, and I see things starting to right themselves at the manufacturer level.

Also, for those who care - most semiconductors are not produced in a single plant. Most chip companies have separate facilities for Fab (the most skilled labor intensive) and test/assembly (commonly outsourced), which kinda complicates the process when shortages hit. The difference between this one and past supply disruptions are that we're seeing is that I've seen the assembly plants run out of wire, glue, and plastic. Those are starting to come back now.

My understanding is that there has been a focused effort to stockpile basic (old school) components(player(s) to remain anonymous), and the supply chains of those basic components can't be ramped that fast to recoup.

But since the whole industry pivots to tackle this issue, my guess is by H2 of 2022 things will start to improve considerably.

[james550imanual]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

My understanding is that there has been a focused effort to stockpile basic (old school) components(player(s) to remain anonymous), and the supply chains of those basic components can't be ramped that fast to recoup.

But since the whole industry pivots to tackle this issue, my guess is by H2 of 2022 things will start to improve considerably.

Don't forget about pent up demand. North America market typically buys 15-17 million cars/year. Just about all of the OEMs have had to cut back on their yearly plans so if they end up making 12-13MM this and next year, it's setting up for records sales after FY22-23..which means the supply chain will continue to be stressed.

Hell half of this group is waiting to buy an M3 until it all settles down...which means huge spike in M3 sales as soon as the floodgates open. The supply chain will take just as long to adjust up, as it did to fall behind (chip shortages were already present 2/3 years ago)

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by james550imanual

Don't forget about pent up demand. North America market typically buys 15-17 million cars/year. Just about all of the OEMs have had to cut back on their yearly plans so if they end up making 12-13MM this and next year, it's setting up for records sales after FY22-23..which means the supply chain will continue to be stressed.

Hell half of this group is waiting to buy an M3 until it all settles down...which means huge spike in M3 sales as soon as the floodgates open. The supply chain will take just as long to adjust up, as it did to fall behind (chip shortages were already present 2/3 years ago)

I also read that many(e.g. Detroit) automakers are de-contenting their offerings to remove driver/infotainment techs as standard options in order to reduce dependencies on chips.

[dJt3xtbook]

https://www.rusnakbmw.com/new-vehicles/m3/

[KnightedBMW]

Originally Posted by dJt3xtbook

https://www.rusnakbmw.com/new-vehicles/m3/

What are you attempting to show us? A car at a dealer with an MSRP price? Not sure I understand.

If you're attempting to show that cars are being sold at MSRP and there's no chip shortage, call the dealer and ask what the price of that car is...99% positive its marked up.

[Salespunk]

Also likely a customer ordered car in transit. No pictures means no car 95% of the time.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

Do u see Tesla immune to this?

Some folks say Tesla are sold out till Q1/Q2 2022, but I do wonder if Tesla has no car to deliver till then, or they really can outsmart everyone else to sustain full capacity with their opaque supply chain(s).

I drove by a dealer here in Bay area and there were several Teslas on the lot, but perhaps they were demo or customer cars.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by akkando

I drove by a dealer here in Bay area and there were several Teslas on the lot, but perhaps they were demo or customer cars.

Do check out the back lots of Tesla Fremont factory, that is likely the most accurate barometer of Tesla production output.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

Do check out the back lots of Tesla Fremont factory, that is likely the most accurate barometer of Tesla production output.

From today as I drove by.

[Salespunk]

For those that think supply is going to get better soon, they are now forecasting issues into 2023. BMW is also raising their profit guidance because of increasing prices.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=CORYa3Rd

Industry wide they are forecasting a 25% reduction in sales due to the shortages.

Regarding Tesla, that has more to do with the desirability of their cars and not management of the supply chain. A lot of new options coming to market giving consumers much better options. Rivian started shipping, the new GM products look very good, BMW's are starting to ship, VW is making big headway with their electric lineup, etc. All of this means big trouble for Tesla's growth long term.

[M3orPorsche]

Originally Posted by dJt3xtbook

I'm aware of the chip shortage, but I'm confused as to how used G8Xs are selling for above MSRP? I'm still seeing tons of new ones available for MSRP at multiple dealerships in the southern CA area.

i agree, as an example i see the same with defenders.

[jmh600cbr]

Happy to sell my 6MT in Canada for 115k let me know.

[willie55912]

For what its worth, there was a mention of factories shutting down involved with the chip shortage. I have business contacts telling me that China is shutting down many production plants for 2 days a week and working for 3 days a week. This is because their power grids cannot keep up with the demand in several areas (Especially in the smaller metro areas). Supply chains are screwed up enough....this if becomes widespread, it make it bad here in the US for our dependence of foreign goods. Do not think that we can manufacture more, after all there is a labor shortage here for many manufacturing jobs.

[fanofbmwe46]

My dealer confirmed they can get me a G80 for $500 off MSRP and a killer trade in value for my current F80. I think I'm going to pass on it though and rather be first on the dealers list for a 2023 G87 M2. The last new model ICE 6spd that BMW will ever make.

[buckybadger]

Originally Posted by fanofbmwe46

My dealer confirmed they can get me a G80 for $500 off MSRP and a killer trade in value for my current F80. I think I'm going to pass on it though and rather be first on the dealers list for a 2023 G87 M2. The last new model ICE 6spd that BMW will ever make.

Nice, I am going to take the same route but will wait a little more to get the M2C or CS.

[androidtopp]

I was told by my SA that BMW is not making some cars with the satellite radio components due to shortages - just an unannounced thing that won't be in the car. For me, that would be fine, I never used it in the last car and won't in this car either, but that seems like a huge, very visible thing to omit, and something a lot of customers will miss. Ineffective wireless charging is one thing, an entire radio system is another.

I would think this would be awfully easy to confirm...and also that someone would have reported it by now in one of the later week build threads. So maybe my SA was wrong?

[Flying05]

Originally Posted by androidtopp

I was told by my SA that BMW is not making some cars with the satellite radio components due to shortages - just an unannounced thing that won't be in the car. For me, that would be fine, I never used it in the last car and won't in this car either, but that seems like a huge, very visible thing to omit, and something a lot of customers will miss. Ineffective wireless charging is one thing, an entire radio system is another.

I would think this would be awfully easy to confirm...and also that someone would have reported it by now in one of the later week build threads. So maybe my SA was wrong?

Somebody in a thread, heck maybe even this one, mentioned that they could not find the satellite radio option. Not sure if it was actually missing or could not find. All I can say is there should be full transparency to customers up front if crap starts being omitted. Not cool at all. Mine better not come out this way.