BMW M3 and M4 - The Icons
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
home
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums General BMW News and Cars Discussion

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      10-23-2021, 01:19 PM   #23
Tacoma
Captain
Canada
945
Rep
749
Posts

Drives: BMWs for 30 yrs
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto, ON

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWILUVU View Post
All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.
I tend to agree with this statement, but a couple of key things need to happen first:

1. Charging times need to get much faster and become comparable to "stopping to get gas" along the road during a trip.

2. There needs to be a much more robust charging station infrastructure in place along the more desolate stretches of interstate highways across the U.S.

I don't think it will take too long to figure out item #1 as the demand drives innovation. Item #2 is a huge opportunity for an evolving industry. Making it convenient and comfortable to charge your EV is going to be a boom industry for not just the charging station aspect, but for retail, food, hotel, etc. to get together and make this work.

Early EVs didn't have near the range that would allow me to drive to work and back without charging, but today I could commute for a week on a single charge with some cars.
Both #1 and #2 are demand driven but I don't think you'll need as many charging stations as gas stations because the vast majority of cars will be charged at home. Many homes already have Level 2 charging through the 240v electric dryer outlet which they can extend outside or to the garage. Homes outside North America are already fully on 220/240v.

Where needed, such as for longer trips, they can use charging stations where you can find Level 3 chargers for fast charging or Level 4 chargers for even faster charging for more money (kind of like Regular and Premium gas). Within 10 years, they'll likely get L3 or L4 charging time down to not far it takes to fill a tank of gas. Governments demanding the EV change will likely offer some incentives initially to build the EV charging infrastructure. Wherever cars are parked, such as shopping centers or parking lot owners can also earn extra profits by offering charging while your car is parked. The city can do same by offering basic L2 charging with metered street parking.

In short, I don't think building EV infrastructure will be as much of a hurdle as you think. Where there's money to be made, they will come.
Appreciate 1
3002 tii2269.00
      10-23-2021, 01:34 PM   #24
TAZ007
Colonel
TAZ007's Avatar
1845
Rep
2,760
Posts

Drives: 2021 Z4 M40
Join Date: May 2021
Location: Texas

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2021 Z4 M40  [5.00]
If EVs are the engines of the future, the charging infrastructure will need to be increased exponentially. Local drives with charging is not the issue; it is the long distance that is. Roll 300 miles then take a 1-hr recharge break to go another 300. That vs a 15 minute fuel fill up for about 350 mile range.

Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.
Appreciate 1
Cos270608.50
      10-29-2021, 11:58 PM   #25
GrussGott
Lieutenant General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
18113
Rep
11,746
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by TAZ007 View Post

Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.
Well, if you live in Travis County, then you're already paying for Tesla's tax credits ... beyond that, it's great you have a military-secured oil supply & government built & maintained freeways secured with your parent's & grandparent's tax dollars ... or you'd be walking everywhere!

Maybe the better news is, most of the newer batteries can be charged to 80% in ~15min and that'll only improve ... in 3-5 years it'll be about 5 min or faster.

The number of companies working on a reliable, safe fast charging battery is stunning.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleBoy View Post
He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
Appreciate 1
      10-30-2021, 07:20 AM   #26
synchronicityii
Enlisted Member
26
Rep
40
Posts

Drives: 2022 X5 xDrive45e M Sport
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: New Braunfels, TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Germanauto View Post
Even here in California, charging infrastructure is a joke. You'll see a handful of Tesla chargers are some grocery stores that's it. I'm sure Electrify America chargers exist, but I have yet to spot one in the wild. In its current state, all this legislation to ban ICE is clearly far-fetched and not feasible.
There are currently 247 Supercharger stations operational in California. I don't know the precise number of stalls, but randomly selecting 100 of the stations and doing a manual count gets to an average of 13.4 stalls/per station, implying a total count of 3,310 stalls in the state.

Keep in mind that as currently designed, the major goal of the Supercharger network is, in Tesla's words, to "keep you charged when you're away from home". With that in mind, to talk about Superchargers (or the lack thereof) at grocery stores is to miss the point, which is to allow drivers to charge in cases where the out-and-back driving distance is greater than the practical range of the car.

Per the 2018 National Household Travel Survey, only 4.9% of vehicle trips are longer than 30 miles. So for people who can charge up at their residence, and always leave the house fully charged, Tesla's Supercharger network strategy makes sense. As a current Model Y owner, it was a huge selling point for me.

Now, if you want to have a discussion about charging infrastructure for non-homeowners, or why the major legacy auto manufacturers seem content to allow third parties to build out charging networks—despite having seen Tesla's success in building its own—that's another matter.
Appreciate 0
      10-30-2021, 10:59 AM   #27
Germanauto
Major General
Germanauto's Avatar
United_States
9666
Rep
6,075
Posts

Drives: Alfa Romeo Giulia, Rosso
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: LA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by synchronicityii View Post

Now, if you want to have a discussion about charging infrastructure for non-homeowners, or why the major legacy auto manufacturers seem content to allow third parties to build out charging networks—despite having seen Tesla's success in building its own—that's another matter.
This is exactly what i'm talking about. Tesla's network has mostly been sufficient for its owners, but even then I know several people who've had a pain of a time charging at crowded stations, including on the drive from LA to/from the Bay. For non-Teslas, charging infrastructure leaves much to be desired.
__________________
Former
-2008 E90 328 black/brown
-2012 Lexus IS250 black/black
Appreciate 1
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 11:55 AM   #28
________
________
4157
Rep
2,301
Posts

Drives: ________
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: ________

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
Relax! If my sense of humor or hobbies offend you, I'll kindly ask you to look the other way.
I'm not offended.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
By the way, I'd be willing to wager that there are far more horses, tack shops, feed stores, and other horse-related amenities within a 10 mile radius of my house than there are EV charging stations
Great! Then riding horses will be super convenient for you ... but finding a gas station or ICE parts in 10 years? that'll probably more expensive and more difficult.

Oh, FYI:

The nearest EV charging station by your house is actually your house. Find your fuse box, and that's where you can install 220 (or even 440!). Or you can just use any 120 outlet.

Said differently, you lost your wager already.
I'll take on the bet that it'll be difficult to find a gas station in 10 years.

In 2031 it will be hard to find a gas station because most will have shut down/been converted into electric-only chargers.

How much are we talking here? I'll go all in.
Appreciate 0
      10-30-2021, 12:19 PM   #29
tracer bullet
Brigadier General
tracer bullet's Avatar
United_States
2276
Rep
3,459
Posts

Drives: '11 135i , '15 X3 35i
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Saint Paul, MN

iTrader: (1)

I predict much longer. EV's are the future but haven't taken over yet. I give it a decade for them to even hit 50%, the rest being hybrids and ICE's. It'll be a while before the cheapest cars have become EV's and even then it'll be another 10 years for the stations to start to plummet and 10 more before they become like horse supplies are today. So... 2050, 2060.

Obviously everyone's got an opinion.
Appreciate 2
________4157.00
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 02:22 PM   #30
TAZ007
Colonel
TAZ007's Avatar
1845
Rep
2,760
Posts

Drives: 2021 Z4 M40
Join Date: May 2021
Location: Texas

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2021 Z4 M40  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
The number of companies working on a reliable, safe fast charging battery is stunning.
I'll agree that batteries have come a long way over the past 30 years, but they are not there yet. When they get there in the next 20 years, we will still have thermal power plants to provide said charging because renewables alone cannot handle the current demand let alone the future of all EVs.
Appreciate 1
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 02:27 PM   #31
GrussGott
Lieutenant General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
18113
Rep
11,746
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by tracer bullet View Post
I predict much longer. EV's are the future but haven't taken over yet. I give it a decade for them to even hit 50%, the rest being hybrids and ICE's. It'll be a while before the cheapest cars have become EV's and even then it'll be another 10 years for the stations to start to plummet and 10 more before they become like horse supplies are today. So... 2050, 2060.

Obviously everyone's got an opinion.
The ICE supply chains are already starting to collapse, see chip shortages (and no, that's not just covid; it's part of the auto industry's self-imposed JIT bomb)

Let's say you own a company that makes gas tanks for ICE cars ... what would you be doing right now: planning on business as usual for the next decade or planning to do something else before your orders collapse?

Ok, now, what % of parts do you think ICE auto makers actually make?

Whatever that vendor % is, that's what's starting to collaspe.

And then the oil, gas, & refinery supply chain will be a whole other problem ...


ICE is about to get REALLY inconvenient ... not an opinion, it's already happening.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleBoy View Post
He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
Appreciate 0
      10-30-2021, 03:42 PM   #32
PackPride85
Lieutenant Colonel
United_States
1120
Rep
1,643
Posts

Drives: M2
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: NC

iTrader: (0)

Good luck living in an apartment building with all EVs. It will be a long time before you see their lots/garages have enough charging stations for every car.
Appreciate 1
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 03:47 PM   #33
tracer bullet
Brigadier General
tracer bullet's Avatar
United_States
2276
Rep
3,459
Posts

Drives: '11 135i , '15 X3 35i
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Saint Paul, MN

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
ICE is about to get REALLY inconvenient ... not an opinion, it's already happening.
I follow you and agree it can and will happen, and is even starting today. I'm just talking about how long it'll be before gas stations disappear enough to a point it becomes a chore to find one.

I remember the demise of film for cameras, it took 10 - 15 years after the first decent digitals came out, and everyone was ready to ditch that stuff. We won't see EV's take over nearly as fast as digital cameras did (cars = much higher price, lower availability, little difference in convenience factor) nor will everyone so readily give up their existing ICE cars that have already been manufactured and paid for.

In addition to that, a recent local article described that since Covid hit, gas sales are obviously down but purchases from the convenience stores inside actually went up. Gas stations don't only sell gas, and will continue to exist for quite some time even if their sales of gas go down and the # of pumps drop.

If you want to say owning an ICE car will become inconvenient, we'll agree all day long. And it'll be a steady thing too, sure. And the number of gas stations as well will of course go down. I just opine a longer timeline for it than I think you do.
Appreciate 2
GrussGott18113.00
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 04:07 PM   #34
grannyknot
Captain
grannyknot's Avatar
945
Rep
766
Posts

Drives: 2008 Z4M coupe
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: toronto

iTrader: (0)

They are never taking away my Z4.
Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?
We've dammed up every river on the planet, in fact those rivers are starting to dry up.
Are we going to start burning more fossil fuel to create more eco friendly electricity?
Wind isn't going to cut it, solar might but they need a massive break through in efficiency.
Unfortunately a lot of people just want to believe that electricity comes from the wall.
__________________
2008 E86 M coupe
Appreciate 2
________4157.00
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 04:45 PM   #35
laidback93
Private
27
Rep
62
Posts

Drives: 2020 M340i, 1990 325is
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Phoenix

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by grannyknot View Post
They are never taking away my Z4.
Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?
We've dammed up every river on the planet, in fact those rivers are starting to dry up.
Are we going to start burning more fossil fuel to create more eco friendly electricity?
Wind isn't going to cut it, solar might but they need a massive break through in efficiency.
Unfortunately a lot of people just want to believe that electricity comes from the wall.
This is exactly where my mind goes whenever someone brings up the EV subject. Where is all that extra power going to come from? We certainly know the power grid isn’t up to snuff. Look at what happened in Texas.
Appreciate 2
Roch M4424.00
Cos270608.50
      10-30-2021, 07:27 PM   #36
synchronicityii
Enlisted Member
26
Rep
40
Posts

Drives: 2022 X5 xDrive45e M Sport
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: New Braunfels, TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TAZ007 View Post
Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.
The IMF estimates global fossil fuel subsidies as $5.9 trillion in 2020. In the US, their estimate of total explicit and implicit fossil fuel subsidies was $662 billion, or $2,006 per capita. Just so we're all on the same page that the government is a) using our tax dollars to subsidize fossil fuels and b) avoiding pricing fossil fuels in accordance with their negative externalities.
Appreciate 1
GrussGott18113.00
      10-30-2021, 08:24 PM   #37
GrussGott
Lieutenant General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
18113
Rep
11,746
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by grannyknot View Post
Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?
Quote:
Originally Posted by laidback93 View Post
This is exactly where my mind goes whenever someone brings up the EV subject. Where is all that extra power going to come from? We certainly know the power grid isn’t up to snuff. Look at what happened in Texas.
The power generation problem is pretty simple: no *consistent, reliable, & dependable* electricity demand to cost-justify new generation capacity - which requires capital intensive new plant construction, as in billions $$ of capital. Ever try to get a corporate project funded? Then you know what I"m talking about ...

EXAMPLE
Let's say you own a sportsball foam-finger shop then, unexpectedly, the team wins the big game! Should you buy more diesel, foam mixture, & hire contractors to double your foam finger production ... or will you get stuck with too many and take a loss?

Maybe the right approach is raise prices of the existing fingers, but no overall production increase ... Yeah, that's probably safest. Sound like Texas?


In the 1960s & 70s, the US had no problem increasing generation capacity for the rise of air conditioning, and it'll have no problem increasing generation capacity for EVs ... What power companies are waiting for are indicators of persistent demand increases so they can cost justify the massive capital needed for new plants, something that's not yet materialized with EVs at 2%.

I'm very confident in capitalism: given the demand, supply is always met.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grannyknot View Post

They are never taking away my Z4.
There are still horses, and there'll always be (used) Z4s ... they just won't be as convenient to use, fuel, & maintain as they are now. No need for drama.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleBoy View Post
He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.

Last edited by GrussGott; 10-30-2021 at 08:37 PM..
Appreciate 1
      10-30-2021, 09:12 PM   #38
GoneIn4Secs
Banned
1286
Rep
1,675
Posts

Drives: BSM F87 LCI (DCT)
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: GTA

iTrader: (0)

I have to laugh at the electric fanbois

ICE aint goin nowhere, all these "predictions" are as good as your climate change predictions for the past 40 yrs pfft
Appreciate 1
Patton2502936.50
      10-30-2021, 10:13 PM   #39
dscabra
First Lieutenant
dscabra's Avatar
4945
Rep
378
Posts

Drives: GMC Denali
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: Colorado

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Equestrian facilities vs. EV charging facilities near me:

Name:  Capture1.JPG
Views: 855
Size:  223.4 KB

Name:  Capture2.JPG
Views: 846
Size:  213.5 KB

This is just what popped up on Google Maps. It doesn't count the scores of horses in my neighborhood or the surrounding properties and doesn't even show the breeder that is less than 1/4" mile from me that has 30-50 horses on his property at any given time. We don't all live in densely populated metropolitan areas, and you don't have to get very far from the city before the EV infrastructure in place today becomes non-existent.
Appreciate 0
      10-31-2021, 12:21 AM   #40
RM7
Brigadier General
RM7's Avatar
2870
Rep
3,445
Posts

Drives: Camaro SS 1LE
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Alaska

iTrader: (0)

...
Attached Images
 
__________________
Current: 2018 Camaro SS 1LE, 2023 Colorado ZR2. Former: BMW 428i Gran Coupe.
Appreciate 2
Cos270608.50
      10-31-2021, 05:46 AM   #41
bimmeryder01
New Member
3
Rep
5
Posts

Drives: 2007 BMW 328i
Join Date: Jul 2021
Location: Michigan

iTrader: (0)

It will cause more gas stations to go because there ain't gonna be be consolidation because no single move gets any single player any amount of sites and this means 75% of US gas stations are quite industrially vulnerable to push coarsening business model that requires them to order in a month
Appreciate 0
      10-31-2021, 07:54 PM   #42
GrussGott
Lieutenant General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
18113
Rep
11,746
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post


you don't have to get very far from the city before the EV infrastructure in place today becomes non-existent.
Wow, so you live in an area with no electricity? Crazy!

I though the rural electrification act from the 1930s took care of most areas of the US ...
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleBoy View Post
He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
Appreciate 0
      10-31-2021, 08:04 PM   #43
dscabra
First Lieutenant
dscabra's Avatar
4945
Rep
378
Posts

Drives: GMC Denali
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: Colorado

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Wow, so you live in an area with no electricity? Crazy!

I though the rural electrification act from the 1930s took care of most areas of the US ...
Plenty of electricity and we even have indoor plumbing, but I imagine most people wouldn't take too kindly to someone plugging your EV into any of their outlets.
Appreciate 0
      10-31-2021, 08:10 PM   #44
Patton250
Colonel
Patton250's Avatar
2937
Rep
2,538
Posts

Drives: BMW X3,M5,Turbo S
Join Date: May 2021
Location: Tampa

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWILUVU View Post
All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.
If this is true and you are right I am going to invest in a tow truck company.
Appreciate 1
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:18 AM.




g80
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST