[Tyga11]

TSLA split today...

[RickFLM4]

Powell states the obvious and people + algorithms freak out.

[NeverL8]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Powell states the obvious and people + algorithms freak out.

Knee jerk reaction, but at least we’re pricing in the 75bp for the next meeting.

If history repeats itself…we should still see a huge run up at the end of the year.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by TheRussski

Knee jerk reaction, but at least we’re pricing in the 75bp for the next meeting.

If history repeats itself…we should still see a huge run up at the end of the year.

I bought more NVIDIA today

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I bought more NVIDIA today

You think this is a one day blip ? And next Monday going back up? Or recent uptrend from july low is a bear rally?

Next week is end of August and historically september is the worst performing month of the year.

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Powell states the obvious and people + algorithms freak out.

I know. I am one in the red too today lol. Early morning i thought it’s a temporary downturn but it went all the way down.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

You think this is a one day blip ? And next Monday going back up? Or recent uptrend from july low is a bear rally?

Next week is end of August and historically september is the worst performing month of the year.

I'm long. I don't day trade or anything except for my failed options trades. Seems like it was a good entry point

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I'm long. I don't day trade or anything except for my failed options trades. Seems like it was a good entry point

I once was like you but i experienced my aapl stock from $180 to $130 this year.

It was painful and i swear to myself that i do not want to experience it again. That i will sell while i am still near top, and with aapl now at $163, down ~$10 from the high this month at $173, i think i am ready to sell if monday goes lower again.

Could have sold yesterday at $170, but with the stock ended up really strong, I didn’t expect it would go this low today.

Worst case scenario, if i sell near top, if it bounced, i can still buy again at near the price i sold.

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

I once was like you but i experienced my aapl stock from $180 to $130 this year.

It was painful and i swear to myself that i do not want to experience it again. That i will sell while i am still near top, and with aapl now at $163, down ~$10 from the high this month at $173, i think i am ready to sell if monday goes lower again.

Could have sold yesterday at $170, but with the stock ended up really strong, I didn’t expect it would go this low today.

Worst case scenario, if i sell near top, if it bounced, i can still buy again at near the price i sold.

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

I once was like you but i experienced my aapl stock from $180 to $130 this year.

It was painful and i swear to myself that i do not want to experience it again. That i will sell while i am still near top, and with aapl now at $163, down ~$10 from the high this month at $173, i think i am ready to sell if monday goes lower again.

Could have sold yesterday at $170, but with the stock ended up really strong, I didn't expect it would go this low today.

Worst case scenario, if i sell near top, if it bounced, i can still buy again at near the price i sold.

Would you mind DM'ing me when stocks reach the top???

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Powell states the obvious and people + algorithms freak out.

Yep but the market was pricing in 50 point hike next, and rate cuts next year, Bc it created an alternative reality. His comments moved the needle to 75, with a chance of 100, so the market corrected.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Yep but the market was pricing in 50 point hike next, and rate cuts next year, Bc it created an alternative reality. His comments moved the needle to 75, with a chance of 100, so the market corrected.

Right. Expectations of the hikes moderating and then ending imminently, followed by cuts soon thereafter, are exactly what you called it - an alternative reality. Zero or near zero percent rates is not a normal state even though it may have seemed that way for a long time. Much volatility ahead.

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by dmatre

Would you mind DM'ing me when stocks reach the top???

I don’t get what you mean. Now aapl is at $163. The highs was $173 a week ago (not all time high as ATH was earlier this year). I can say $10 off the $173 near the top. Yesterday was $170, which could have been better spot to sell, but oh well…

I am small player. I don’t have hundred shares so i rather sell and secure cash. I could have buy put as insurance but put requires 100 shares per lot.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Right. Expectations of the hikes moderating and then ending imminently, followed by cuts soon thereafter, are exactly what you called it - an alternative reality. Zero or near zero percent rates is not a normal state even though it may have seemed that way for a long time. Much volatility ahead.

Remember last summer when he said inflation was transitory? Tried to jaw-bone it away. Same thing this summer, trying to jaw-bone it with expectations of higher rates. My guess is after Sept’s increase, there will be fewer but I don’t expect a decrease. Remember that the FED is still undoing QE.

In the near term both the IRA and the student loan forgiveness are inflationary. The resumptions of payments on remaining loans will be non-inflationary. So on balance not sure how the FED will handle those, but it might give them impetus for an extra 25bps.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Remember last summer when he said inflation was transitory? Tried to jaw-bone it away. Same thing this summer, trying to jaw-bone it with expectations of higher rates. My guess is after Sept’s increase, there will be fewer but I don’t expect a decrease. Remember that the FED is still undoing QE.

In the near term both the IRA and the student loan forgiveness are inflationary. The resumptions of payments on remaining loans will be non-inflationary. So on balance not sure how the FED will handle those, but it might give them impetus for an extra 25bps.

I know it's not supposed to work like this but I wonder if the FED gets pressure from the WH to be more positive...or at least not cut rates as much to give the market a boost this fall for elections.

[NeverL8]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I bought more NVIDIA today

Great company for long term. Just gotta DCA little bit at a time.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Remember last summer when he said inflation was transitory? Tried to jaw-bone it away. Same thing this summer, trying to jaw-bone it with expectations of higher rates. My guess is after Sept’s increase, there will be fewer but I don’t expect a decrease. Remember that the FED is still undoing QE.

In the near term both the IRA and the student loan forgiveness are inflationary. The resumptions of payments on remaining loans will be non-inflationary. So on balance not sure how the FED will handle those, but it might give them impetus for an extra 25bps.

Yes I remember and they have acknowledged they got it wrong last year. I don’t think jawboning is any more viable of a strategy now than it was last year though so I don’t think that’s the plan.

I think they will continue to unwind QE and ride rates up to 4% or higher and hang there for quite a while unless there is a severe recession. I do think after September, they will be able to pull back on the level and frequency of hikes, but won’t let up entirely until inflation appears settled back down close to 2%.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I know it's not supposed to work like this but I wonder if the FED gets pressure from the WH to be more positive...or at least not cut rates as much to give the market a boost this fall for elections.

Even if that were possible, it’s a double-edged sword because the administration’s policies have already fueled inflation to some extent and now there is the loan forgiveness and deferrals on top of it. A lot of people hurt by inflation didn’t go to college and didn’t get any of their debts forgiven. Looking soft on inflation to juice the stock market could have unintended political consequences.

[chassis]

Inflation is on its way out. The foot came off the inflation gas pedal at the end of 2021. The economy requires several quarters to respond; the response is unfolding now.

I am lining up buys for new money. Target timing for the first buy is near the next Fed announcement.

Cash heavy, or high liquidity percentage, is a good strategy for the long term. Cash is not always trash. On the contrary, cash is flexibility and a volatility offset.

[dangerus_car]

Originally Posted by chassis

Inflation is on its way out. The foot came off the inflation gas pedal at the end of 2021. The economy requires several quarters to respond; the response is unfolding now.

I am lining up buys for new money. Target timing for the first buy is near the next Fed announcement.

Cash heavy, or high liquidity percentage, is a good strategy for the long term. Cash is not always trash. On the contrary, cash is flexibility and a volatility offset.

From now to fed announcement would be downtrend in your opinion?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

From now to fed announcement would be downtrend in your opinion?

Not necessarily, just uncertainty and potential for downside. If the market dives the days prior to the announcement, in my view this would be an overreaction and I would consider buying my target names. Or not.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I know it's not supposed to work like this but I wonder if the FED gets pressure from the WH to be more positive...or at least not cut rates as much to give the market a boost this fall for elections.

I had a similar thought but in a different direction, admin pressures fed to clamp interest rates with aggressive hikes to show inflation slowing ahead of election - seems like the climate we are in, but certainly the fed can be in this mode regardless of gov pressure, it's literally their mandate

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by dangerus_car

I don't get what you mean. Now aapl is at $163. The highs was $173 a week ago (not all time high as ATH was earlier this year). I can say $10 off the $173 near the top. Yesterday was $170, which could have been better spot to sell, but oh well…

I am small player. I don't have hundred shares so i rather sell and secure cash. I could have buy put as insurance but put requires 100 shares per lot.

I mean: you never know stocks have reached a top …. Until they retreat from that top and don't return to it again.

Kind of hard to know it's a top in the moment.