06-29-2022, 11:20 PM | #1 |
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W.W.Y.D. ?
Hi all, looking for some opinions and insights.
I'll be as brief as I can be. I have a '20 F82 CS. Love the damn thing, but I also like newer/better, hence me wanting to eventually make the switch to a G82. My lease ends in March of '23. My original plan was to ride it out until the end and then shop around. Then, hit the fan and now we are where we are (ADMs/shortages/rate hikes/etc). Additionally, I got a letter from my dealer saying I can trade in and cash out ~$7,500. Soooo, should I cash out the CS and put it toward a G82 before rates get any higher, OR should I just continue to enjoy the CS and wait to see what financial climate were in next March? TBH, I'm not sure what type of payments ppl are getting right now, and I'm also not sure how much worse they'll get before they get better. I'd appreciate anyone with a crystal ball chiming in for the latter point. Thanks in advance. |
06-30-2022, 12:02 AM | #2 |
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I'm in a very similar situation as you - currently in a F82 with $9-11k in equity depending on which dealer you ask and lease up at the end of December this year. I've been trying to get an allocation for a G82 since March of this year and have so far been unsuccessful despite being on multiple waitlists. Fortunately it seems the value on my F82 has been holding strong, ::knock on wood:: but I rarely drive it anymore as I know all it takes is one irresponsible driver or f*ckup to completely wipe out that nice chunk of equity - something I do not want to deal with when I am on the cusp of trading it in as soon as I get an allocation.
As bad as the economy is right now considering inflation, rates and equities market, it seems cars are holding strong due to extremely constricted new car supply in addition to the relatively low cost of borrowing and strength of the labor market. If we start seeing mass white collar pay cuts or layoffs happening at the same time as automotive supply chains substantially easing, I think we'll see the luxury car market essentially collapse. If we can avoid an economic meltdown, I think the most likely scenario for cars by next year would be to see the market in the process of returning to some semblance of pre-covid normals with small discounts on new cars and significantly less equity if any at all on your used car. If 10 years of car ownership has taught me anything however, your trade value is going to take a much bigger hit much more quickly before dealers start discounting cars like the M3/4 in any meaningful way. I'd prefer not to wait and see what the market does, especially when I'm in such a favorable position with my F82. As soon as I have an allocation and production week, hopefully soon, I plan on capturing whatever equity I have in my car and pre-trading it to the highest bidder as I have something else to drive in the meantime. I also have a couple dealers lined up willing to write me a check for the equity even if I do not buy from them, in the case that the dealer who gets the allocation tries to screw me on the value of my car. I'm certainly glad I did not trade my car in March when I started this process as it would've sucked to be without my F82 without anything in the pipeline. Definitely shop around and don't just take your dealer's word about the $7,500. As for any doubts about G82 vs F82 - the G82 is pretty much superior in every way. I love my F82 to death and if it were entirely up to me, I'd keep both as they are completely different animals. However, after a couple days behind the wheel of a G82 and there is little doubt in my mind how much I'd enjoy owning one, even over my F82. All in all, with all the uncertainty surrounding the car market and especially considering your trade, I'd say it's better to get started in this process sooner than later.
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06-30-2022, 05:10 AM | #3 |
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I sold my M3 CS and got into the G82. No regrets. It's a better driving car even without the DCT.
As far as the economy goes... its anyone's guess. Personally, I'd strike now while the iron is hot. I don't think you are going to get a better residual than right now. Things are already starting to plateau in the secondary market. The downside is we can't say the same thing about a new car. Expect to pay almost full price or more for a new car.
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06-30-2022, 06:15 AM | #4 |
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My crystal ball is booting up as I write this. It runs Windows 3.0 (it's an old ball) so I may just have to wing this answer myself.
Used car prices, home prices and other big ticket items that have been in short supply are starting to plateau. They're not going down necessarily (depends on where you are) but the price increases appear to have slowed or stopped. New car prices have gone up and deals are few and far between, lease rates on BMWs are up significantly. First, I would not take the dealer offer without getting some other offers first. As a lease buyout, the rules have changed so you may want to review your contract first. Second, it appears that you have multiple cars, so if they are not all allocated to spouse, children, etc. then can you drive something else while you wait for the new M4? If so, that helps a lot. Third, yeah, the G82 is sooooooooo much better than the F82. Fourth, can you get an allocation from your dealer? That's the first step before you start worrying about production scheduling. And fifth, you need to start now, working on your configuration and color choices. Because that can take a while. Ah, so I see that the thread title is WWYD? Well... I got out of my lease on the 540i early to use my G82 as my sole, everyday car, which worked fine until I bought the Alpina, then I (because prices were still high) sold the M4 for more than I paid for it. In hindsight, economically/financially, I should have kept the G30 and bought it at lease end. I love the Alpina but OMG it's a lot of money sitting in one car. Emotionally, I absolutely love the B7 and don't regret the move for a minute. I do slightly regret the loss of the M4, but honestly, it was an impulse buy and I didn't care much for the color and would have preferred an M3 but since it cost me nothing to own it for a year, I'm OK.
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npcars47.50 |
06-30-2022, 07:18 AM | #5 |
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Strike now. Car market has been flat q1-q2 2022 and will only continue to get flat or start to go down and with all the economic indicators it will probably be the latter.
I traded in my Porsche recently, made some dough and got a g80. The extra cash I have I can put towards the market as it continues to drop. Once it comes back up again, I'll have that much more equity to put towards another car (in my case a 992 GTS) once car prices come back down to normal levels. If you guys remember back in 2020, folks projected late 2022 is when supply chain (chips) should start to catch up and that still seems to be the case. And it should also be enough time for car makers to get creative and deploy procurement strategies that gets around the Ukraine issue with the whole wiring harness ordeal. |
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06-30-2022, 10:17 AM | #6 |
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If i were you, i would sell the CS now.
With everything happening, used car market is beyond its peak and its not going to start strong for a very long time. |
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BMWRacer5232519.00 |
06-30-2022, 05:44 PM | #7 |
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06-30-2022, 06:11 PM | #8 |
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718 GT4. I had a 991.2 GTS and miss that car dearly but the price on those are still insane right now, so 992 GTS is the next logical choice. I'm just still on the "list" from a few dealers. They're all saying 1-2 years until I can get an allocation unless I spend more with them now. Markup from the dealer I bought my GT4 from is $25K for a GTS.
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07-01-2022, 07:35 PM | #10 | |
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