[BMWRacer523]

Originally Posted by JEM3

I can't see it being 50%. But no one knows.

Assuming 10,000 miles per year, so 40,000 total, worth 50%? I don't see it being that low.

The "average spec'd" xdrive I would say is around ~$86,000, and I personally don't see them selling for $43,000 with 40,000 miles on them.

Closer to 60% after 4 years, 40k miles I would say.

[Ex_Stig]

Originally Posted by MTM3

50% if you’re lucky. 40% if you bought that dumb Keith with a lisp edition 😂

I've got Mike Tyson on line 2. He'd like to have a word with you. Lol

[barryc365]

The reason I bought a G80 was that I couldn't get a good F80 under $55k which made no sense for a 3/4 year old car that was running out of warranty. I felt the F80's were over priced at that level a year ago

In 3/4 years time I'd expect the G80's to be trading atleast $55k mileage, spec and condition depending which isn't bad depreciation, certainly not 50%

Consider that in 4 years time, a new G80 may have increased in price by 10% +…that will help second hand values of our cars

[2022M4COMP]

Originally Posted by barryc365

The reason I bought a G80 was that I couldn't get a good F80 under $55k which made no sense for a 3/4 year old car that was running out of warranty. I felt the F80's were over priced at that level a year ago

In 3/4 years time I'd expect the G80's to be trading atleast $55k mileage, spec and condition depending which isn't bad depreciation, certainly not 50%

Consider that in 4 years time, a new G80 may have increased in price by 10% +…that will help second hand values of our cars

Very true, I feel as long as your not paying a crazy markup your going to be pretty well off. I cannot see the 23-24 model years not having a substantial price increase. And I'm not taking $1-2k I'm talking more like 5-10k. If any of you are in any type of industry I'm sure you've seen similar increases without any signs of relief. In my industry it's a new price increase letter every week

[Vishal50028]

Originally Posted by 2022M4COMP

Very true, I feel as long as your not paying a crazy markup your going to be pretty well off. I cannot see the 23-24 model years not having a substantial price increase. And I'm not taking $1-2k I'm talking more like 5-10k. If any of you are in any type of industry I'm sure you've seen similar increases without any signs of relief. In my industry it's a new price increase letter every week

You sell building materials by any chance?

[GoldfishTX]

Originally Posted by 2022M4COMP

Very true, I feel as long as your not paying a crazy markup your going to be pretty well off. I cannot see the 23-24 model years not having a substantial price increase. And I'm not taking $1-2k I'm talking more like 5-10k. If any of you are in any type of industry I'm sure you've seen similar increases without any signs of relief. In my industry it's a new price increase letter every week

I think we will start to see many of the chip shortage woes unwind this year. A lot of investment has been made in new capacity that's coming online, and in general, the production gears are turning everywhere. There are definitely some raw material prices that are out of control, but I don't think that will push vehicle prices up by 5-10k. Definitely expect to keep up with inflation, though.

[Salespunk]

Originally Posted by GoldfishTX

I think we will start to see many of the chip shortage woes unwind this year. A lot of investment has been made in new capacity that's coming online, and in general, the production gears are turning everywhere. There are definitely some raw material prices that are out of control, but I don't think that will push vehicle prices up by 5-10k. Definitely expect to keep up with inflation, though.

7% inflation last year would equate to $5600 on an $80K price. BMW didn't change MSRP despite inflation. Prices are going to jump in a big way at some point if this keeps up. Right now the dealers are taking profits out of BMW's pockets with ADM. I don't expect BMW will sit on the sidelines too much longer.

[ano0oj]

Not really worried about depreciation on M3...every M3 so far has been able to sell for at least your loan balance(if any).

In some cases for me, depreciation on a 335i back in 2010 caused it to be more expensive monthly than an M3

[vj123]

Originally Posted by Salespunk

7% inflation last year would equate to $5600 on an $80K price. BMW didn't change MSRP despite inflation. Prices are going to jump in a big way at some point if this keeps up. Right now the dealers are taking profits out of BMW's pockets with ADM. I don't expect BMW will sit on the sidelines too much longer.

BMW has not increased MSRP inline with recent inflation but has reduced customer incentives which we used to see in the past. This should have increased their per vehicle profit anyways.

[HorsePower]

I'm not rooting against fellow forum members who are waiting for allocations, but in terms of propping up values, the fewer G8x cars are made, the better they'll hold their value. Maybe I'm misremembering, but in the early M days (80s/90s, and even into the earlier 2000s), production numbers were lower, the cars seemed way more rare and harder to get, and they held their value very well.

The closer these cars get to any other walk-in-and-order vehicle, the closer they'll get to typical depreciation curves.

If Porsche started making a GT3 manual for anyone who walked in the door, for example, current owners would cry. And dealers wouldn't be getting 50-100k mark-ups on new units either.

[2022M4COMP]

Originally Posted by Salespunk

7% inflation last year would equate to $5600 on an $80K price. BMW didn't change MSRP despite inflation. Prices are going to jump in a big way at some point if this keeps up. Right now the dealers are taking profits out of BMW's pockets with ADM. I don't expect BMW will sit on the sidelines too much longer.

Finally someone who understands economics instead of living in the clouds lol

[maverick618]

Originally Posted by barryc365

The reason I bought a G80 was that I couldn't get a good F80 under $55k which made no sense for a 3/4 year old car that was running out of warranty. I felt the F80's were over priced at that level a year ago

In 3/4 years time I'd expect the G80's to be trading atleast $55k mileage, spec and condition depending which isn't bad depreciation, certainly not 50%

Consider that in 4 years time, a new G80 may have increased in price by 10% +…that will help second hand values of our cars

This is why I decided to buy new as well. For a slightly larger monthly payment I could get a new car with a new warranty, making no sacrifices in features or color.

I did a lot of research on depreciation for previous gen M3s as well, and I think 60% is a reasonable expectation after 4 years of typical ownership.

[Salespunk]

Originally Posted by vj123

BMW has not increased MSRP inline with recent inflation but has reduced customer incentives which we used to see in the past. This should have increased their per vehicle profit anyways.

Good point, but dealers are also adding ADM. ADM is money that BMW knows it could be charging if they believe input prices are permanent. Right now they believe it might still be transitory so haven't moved MSRP yet. I still thing we will see manufacturers playing catch up on pricing in '22 with some significant increases. One of them will move first and take heat then the others will follow.

[vj123]

Originally Posted by Salespunk

Good point, but dealers are also adding ADM. ADM is money that BMW knows it could be charging if they believe input prices are permanent. Right now they believe it might still be transitory so haven't moved MSRP yet. I still thing we will see manufacturers playing catch up on pricing in '22 with some significant increases. One of them will move first and take heat then the others will follow.

Actually domestic manufacturers (FCA, Tesla) has done several increases last year. I think most people dont realize this unless you are tracking a particular vehicle overtime.

BMW Canada updated their pricing in december and BMW US followed this month. Like you said, we can expect a significant hike for MY23 considering the additional LCI content as well.