[JDUNITNOW]

Originally Posted by imperfectluck

This is the issue I have, having lived in NYC all my life and seeing how EVs have been growing amongst consumers in recent years, our infra is far from having a bunch of fast charging stations around because the time today to pump gas vs using a more wide spread charging station adds up in time the more people you have as it takes longer to re charge batteries than to pump fuel.

Not even taking into account yet the strain on the power grid which will have to be accounted for, I’m intentionally leaving out us homeowners as we can charge at home but I can’t deny trying to see people charge their cars around Manhattan and Brooklyn is going to be a real test over the next five or so years.

What metric are you gauging to say these cars are way better than some POS commuter cars because I know folks still buying POS commuter cars due to its ease to just park and leave them anywhere.

I work for a company that is trying to upgrade the current infrastructure at no cost to the consumer and you can't even get them to respond d and when they do, they reject it for reasons as I don't want this transformer on my property or they feel as if the company is out to get me. Also they are told y their attorney or real estate agent misinformed them that it will reduce their property value. What's worse is they say put the device on my neighbor. We are selfish as a society and will be our on demise.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Forzanerazzurri

It's a stopgap technology that is deservedly criticized.

Didn’t we say the same thing about the horseless carriage?

[msej449]

For those who see a government conspiracy to force EV sales in some unnatural way, let's take a look at EV vs ICEV sales in the UK, where there are no government subsidies for EV purchase and no government investment in infrastructure. SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders) car sales numbers for the year 2022 vs 2021:

Diesel: Down -51%
Petrol: Down -21%
BEV: Up +56%
HEV: Up +21%

(BEV = Battery electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle)

Of course, the UK isn't the USA and it's well-established that the majority of household car journeys are less than 30 miles radius. Plus, around 60% of households have a drive or garage, making home charging more feasible.

But what it does show is that people are voting with their wallets and increasingly buying EVs over ICEVs when they change cars. And they're doing that because the EV is a good fit for what they want/need. Car manufacturers are simply responding to this trend and to the massive competition from the Far East and especially China, so as not to be obliterated by a China that has the rare earths, raw materials, manufacturing and supply chain and cheap labor that Europe and the US lack.

And back to the main topic: Specifically the assertion that the M3 is a significant proportion of BMW's market - Total sales in the US were 332,388 in 2022, ~2.5% of the total US market. It's hard to get the exact number of M3s, and I can't be bothered to do more searches, but according to some of the postings on this forum, we're talking about 1,000. Although some have commented that it's a bit more of the 7,000 Ms of all types sold that year. So let's go with 2,000: this is 0.6% or 3 per 500 BMWs sold. This isn't a statistically large proportion by any measure. So it's no surprise that BMW might decide to make a radical change to the drivetrain that while it may put off traditional buyers is thought likely to attract more than it deters. Worst case is they don't sell any M3 EVs but at such small numbers, that's almost noise. I see this as a just a natural, if perhaps to some an unwelcome evolution of the model.

An EV version of the M3 absolutely won't be like the petrol version. For me, it will be better. But for many it will be so different to the long tradition of M3/M4s as to be a completely alien experience which they don't find attractive. Which is understandable, and it's fine to complain that BMW are discarding a tradition that many find compelling. But that is as far as it goes. It's just an adaptation to changing technology and customer demand.

[Needsdecaf]

Originally Posted by msej449

For those who see a government conspiracy to force EV sales in some unnatural way, let's take a look at EV vs ICEV sales in the UK, where there are no government subsidies for EV purchase and no government investment in infrastructure. SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders) car sales numbers for the year 2022 vs 2021:

Diesel: Down -51%
Petrol: Down -21%
BEV: Up +56%
HEV: Up +21%

(BEV = Battery electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle)

Of course, the UK isn't the USA and it's well-established that the majority of household car journeys are less than 30 miles radius. Plus, around 60% of households have a drive or garage, making home charging more feasible.

But what it does show is that people are voting solely with their wallets and buying EVs over ICEVs when they change cars. And they're doing that solely because the EV is increasingly a good fit for what they want. Car manufacturers are simply responding to this trend and to the massive competition from the Far East and especially China, so as not to be obliterated by a China that has the rare earths, raw materials, manufacturing and supply chain and cheap labor that EUrope and the US lacks.

But how much of that is driven by the massive number of EV's available now? Vs. the number of ICE alternatives?

[JMD]

Originally Posted by RichP

This thread will be great to revisit in 4-5 years when the performance numbers on this car come out and the reviews are raving. It's 4 years out, from a company that one one of the earlier entrants into the world of electric. Ive a feeling it will not suck. BMW M was never going to be turbocharged, it was always going to have a manual, never AWD, etc etc. Everyone survived.

And as someone else has posted, if you want a more analog driving experience and the reward it brings, buy a classic car with a manual. The new M cars are already so assisted with computers, they feel dead as it is. Might as well go all-in with electric and have physics defying performance.

Major Facts!

Back in the day,...70s,..80s, etc. I use to wonder about the traction an every day car with AWD would have! Now, fast forward years later,...and the proof is in the pudding! However, a quick flashback recalls early adopters of an AWD drivetrain,...the BMW 325iX (1988-91*) and the Toyota Celica GT-Four (1986-1989) just to name two.

[MadBimmeRad]

Originally Posted by msej449

For those who see a government conspiracy to force EV sales in some unnatural way, let's take a look at EV vs ICEV sales in the UK, where there are no government subsidies for EV purchase and no government investment in infrastructure. SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders) car sales numbers for the year 2022 vs 2021:

Diesel: Down -51%
Petrol: Down -21%
BEV: Up +56%
HEV: Up +21%

(BEV = Battery electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle)

Of course, the UK isn't the USA and it's well-established that the majority of household car journeys are less than 30 miles radius. Plus, around 60% of households have a drive or garage, making home charging more feasible.

But what it does show is that people are voting with their wallets and increasingly buying EVs over ICEVs when they change cars. And they're doing that because the EV is a good fit for what they want/need. Car manufacturers are simply responding to this trend and to the massive competition from the Far East and especially China, so as not to be obliterated by a China that has the rare earths, raw materials, manufacturing and supply chain and cheap labor that Europe and the US lack.

And back to the main topic: Specifically the assertion that the M3 is a significant proportion of BMW's market - Total sales in the US were 332,388 in 2022, ~2.5% of the total US market. It's hard to get the exact number of M3s, and I can't be bothered to do more searches, but according to some of the postings on this forum, we're talking about 1,000. Although some [...]

Thank you for a comprehensive breakdown.

Any chance you could also provide similar figures for India or Bangladesh or Indonesia?

I'm genuinely not diminishing the value of your input but it seems many people are in a love affair with what folks in the West are doing with EV sales records whereas the real story is in the global South where well over half of the population can't afford to feed themselves let alone buy a BEV/HEV

[Forzanerazzurri]

Originally Posted by jmg

Didn’t we say the same thing about the horseless carriage?

This is a bit disingenuous. Fun fact, electric cars preceded gasoline powered cars. Were not exactly talking about a generation leap in technology like the move from horses to cars here.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Forzanerazzurri

This is a bit disingenuous. Fun fact, electric cars preceded gasoline powered cars. Were not exactly talking about a generation leap in technology like the move from horses to cars here.

It’s one technology replacing another that will have an adjustment period that people claim is too difficult or will never move past to catch on. Batteries will get lighter, have more range, be safer, and charge faster over time. It’s not a matter of if, just a matter of when.

[Niko1Devynios]

If efficiencies can improve with hydrogen/methane/water/whatever-Porsche-is-doing, then history will certainly look at EVs as a stop gap. Not that there's anything wrong with a stop gap measure, but if we're talking energy efficiency, the gulf between ICEV and EV isn't all that wide from what I've read.

I'm ambivalent about it, though. I see the value of EVs as a short-range commuter, but since I'm a remote worker/entrepreneur in an industry that can likely stay remote, short-range commuting isn't my use case. I drive rarely for necessity...most of my miles are for fun.

[Quadruple VANOS]

Originally Posted by msej449

For those who see a government conspiracy to force EV sales in some unnatural way, let's take a look at EV vs ICEV sales in the UK, where there are no government subsidies for EV purchase and no government investment in infrastructure. SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders) car sales numbers for the year 2022 vs 2021:

Diesel: Down -51%
Petrol: Down -21%
BEV: Up +56%
HEV: Up +21%

(BEV = Battery electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle)

Of course, the UK isn't the USA and it's well-established that the majority of household car journeys are less than 30 miles radius. Plus, around 60% of households have a drive or garage, making home charging more feasible.

But what it does show is that people are voting with their wallets and increasingly buying EVs over ICEVs when they change cars. And they're doing that because the EV is a good fit for what they want/need. Car manufacturers are simply responding to this trend and to the massive competition from the Far East and especially China, so as not to be obliterated by a China that has the rare earths, raw materials, manufacturing and supply chain and cheap labor that Europe and the US lack.

Showing sales changes as a percentage is misleading when the volume of sales between ICE and BEV are so radically different. BEV sales up 51% is surely nowhere near as many units as Petrol being 21% down. Want to share the sold unit numbers for those categories instead of percentage?

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Quadruple VANOS

Showing sales changes as a percentage is misleading when the volume of sales between ICE and BEV are so radically different. BEV sales up 51% is surely nowhere near as many units as Petrol being 21% down. Want to share the sold unit numbers for those categories instead of percentage?

It shows a shift in trend, not gross market share.

[Quadruple VANOS]

Originally Posted by jmg

It shows a shift in trend, not gross market share.

Again, I believe showing the change as a percentage is misleading because the starting point is so radically different. Further, I think this is the intention and exactly why the data is presented in this way instead of raw sales numbers that would make clear how small BEV sales volume is.

[Ankarah]

The situation is so radically different, not only between countries, but even within the same States, for everyone that it’s impossible to make any blanket statements on EVs and their feasibility, so I can only speak for myself, but there isn’t a single public supercharger station within 150 sq miles of where I live.

I’d be forced to drive around and look for random open charging stations in nearby office building or supermarket parking lots every time my battery run low.

EVs, at least for people like myself leaving in quiet suburbs, is a distant reality until the infrastructure vastly improves so as charging stations become as commonplace as gas stations, and/or our recharge technology gets to where we can charge batteries from empty to full within 5 mins.

[Forzanerazzurri]

Originally Posted by msej449

For those who see a government conspiracy to force EV sales in some unnatural way, let's take a look at EV vs ICEV sales in the UK, where there are no government subsidies for EV purchase and no government investment in infrastructure. SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders) car sales numbers for the year 2022 vs 2021:

Diesel: Down -51%
Petrol: Down -21%
BEV: Up +56%
HEV: Up +21%

(BEV = Battery electric vehicle, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle)

Of course, the UK isn't the USA and it's well-established that the majority of household car journeys are less than 30 miles radius. Plus, around 60% of households have a drive or garage, making home charging more feasible.

But what it does show is that people are voting with their wallets and increasingly buying EVs over ICEVs when they change cars. And they're doing that because the EV is a good fit for what they want/need. Car manufacturers are simply responding to this trend and to the massive competition from the Far East and especially China, so as not to be obliterated by a China that has the rare earths, raw materials, manufacturing and supply chain and cheap labor that Europe and the US lack.

.

Now you're just being obtuse. Its not a "government conspiracy", its public policy.

Under ever tightening emissions regulations, car manufacturers have to meet average emissions and mileage figures across their fleets. I thought this was common knowledge. Yes, its unnatural. The proliferation of EV's on both the supply side and the demand side is not entirely organic, nor is it a result of anything resembling a "free" market.

When a car maker converts 30% of their product catalogue to EV by way of government decree from zero, of course you are going to see large YoY sales figure increases in that segment. What is ironic, is that based on consumer surveys and the slower than expected uptake, consumers in general do not want EVs. You can call them "EVophoboes" or whatever buzz word you need to attack them with but range anxiety is a real hurdle for EV makers to overcome (whether or not it is rational is not the point). Ignoring that, the biggest issue affecting the uptake of EVs is simply due to the increased cost. The upfront cost for an EV vs a comparable ICE model and the subsequent decade-long payback period is often seen as a bad deal by consumers, and they are right.

You seem to be quite passionate about this segment, I would suggest you do a modicum of research on it.

[msej449]

Showing sales as a percentage isn’t misleading. It reflects the trend which if it continues means EVs will come to dominate domestic car sales. If you want the unit numbers, go do the work yourself - just Google UK SMMT and spend an hour or so extracting what you’re interested in. But if you’re not inclined to do the research then here’s the latest numbers for car sales UK YTD 2023:

Petrol - 58,973
Diesel - 5,280
BEV - 17,294
PHEV - 9,109

I’d admit my math is poor but to round it up to whole units, that seems to work out as a ratio of 17:5 of petrol to fully electric new cars being sold YTD.

It’s really weird. People like me who are BMW enthusiasts and currently own a BMW petrol performance model aren’t narrow-minded green zealots. Yet we’re attacked because we simply explain the reality of the market out there, which is that for more and more people, an EV as a second car is a very cost-effective choice. And for more and more people an Ev as their only transport is increasingly a serious option.

Manufacturers are moving to offer more EV vehicles because they can sell them. Because people want them. People like me, who are entirely open to what drivetrain they have but after taking a look, opt for electric as superior to petroleum. There is no government incentive that tips the cost equation for us in the UK - EV was just the better option when I came to renew.

If people in the US don’t get access to the diversity of models we have in Europe then that’s their loss and a disservice from their domestic manufacturers. And if the charging infrastructure in the US is behind international levels of availability then that’s your problem. All I am doing is reporting back on what happens in a country with a pretty right-wing government where there are no incentives at all to move to EV, and yet people increasingly are opting for them.

[BzsBimmer]

Originally Posted by Ankarah

The situation is so radically different, not only between countries, but even within the same States, for everyone that it’s impossible to make any blanket statements on EVs and their feasibility, so I can only speak for myself, but there isn’t a single public supercharger station within 150 sq miles of where I live.

I’d be forced to drive around and look for random open charging stations in nearby office building or supermarket parking lots every time my battery run low.

EVs, at least for people like myself leaving in quiet suburbs, is a distant reality until the infrastructure vastly improves so as charging stations become as commonplace as gas stations, and/or our recharge technology gets to where we can charge batteries from empty to full within 5 mins.

What zip are you in that there isn’t a charger within 150 sq miles? Many people just aren’t aware of chargers because they aren’t users, but one may be surprised on how many there are; hidden from people who don’t have them in their reticular vision.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Quadruple VANOS

Again, I believe showing the change as a percentage is misleading because the starting point is so radically different. Further, I think this is the intention and exactly why the data is presented in this way instead of raw sales numbers that would make clear how small BEV sales volume is.

Gross sales volume show which is still the more prevalent, but if you want to show the change in consumer spending habits, you use the change in sales volume over the same period of time. It's a more complete picture to use both, and you can't do projections based on volume alone, it's change in volume that matters.

It's like stock. Volume is important, but a stock being down 21% from last quarter tells us more about the health of that stock.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by msej449

If people in the US don’t get access to the diversity of models we have in Europe then that’s their loss and a disservice from their domestic manufacturers. And if the charging infrastructure in the US is behind international levels of availability then that’s your problem. All I am doing is reporting back on what happens in a country with a pretty right-wing government where there are no incentives at all to move to EV, and yet people increasingly are opting for them.

This is what's hard for people to swallow. The US isn't the only demographic car manufacturers have to cater to. Just because the EV isn't as practical as it is in the city as it is in rural areas, doesn't mean that they have to cater to rural areas. It means that rural areas have to improve their infrastructure to keep up with the modern world.

It's always been like that. It's not like gas stations existed before the ICE. We had to build that out. It just so happens that we already have gas stations in rural areas and now we are in the same situation with charging EVs. We simply need to build more charging stations or provide local methods of charging that work for rural areas.

The US needs to keep up so they don't get left behind.

[msej449]

I’d be the first to admit that access to a home charger is a huge factor in the usability equation, as is access to a discounted price for overnight charging if you have one. Here, a home charger costs about £1K, but may be double that if you want the charger some way away from the main mains supply. It takes about 4-5 hours to charge up my EV from 20% to 80%.

And here too, there’s competition for cheap night time electricity, such that a 20%->80% recharge overnight costs me £2.70 as opposed to x10 that on a super fast charger at a freeway service station. So yes, if I did the sort of job I used to a few years ago, involving driving all over the country to see customers, often away overnight, then an EV would probably not be a practical or cost-effective option.

But as a replacement for my second petrol car which does ‘local’ trips the EV was the better choice. And by local I mean a radius of no more than 70 miles from home, if I want to get there and back with no worry about a reserve and not necessarily starting out at 100%. Anything further, and I’d probably take the M235i.

The issue here in the UK is not so much rural vs urban, but more home vs street charging. The danger is that an ‘electric divide’ is opening up between those households who have space to charge their car overnight at home (62% of households in England outside London, and 44% within Greater London) and those who don’t. So that while all the other factors may weigh in favour of an EV people can’t benefit from having one because they can’t charge cheaply and at home.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by msej449

I’d be the first to admit that access to a home charger is a huge factor in the usability equation, as is access to a discounted price for overnight charging if you have one. Here, a home charger costs about £1K, but may be double that if you want the charger some way away from the main mains supply. It takes about 4-5 hours to charge up my EV from 20% to 80%.

And here too, there’s competition for cheap night time electricity, such that a 20%->80% recharge overnight costs me £2.70 as opposed to x10 that on a super fast charger at a freeway service station. So yes, if I did the sort of job I used to a few years ago, involving driving all over the country to see customers, often away overnight, then an EV would probably not be a practical or cost-effective option.

But as a replacement for my second petrol car which does ‘local’ trips the EV was the better choice. And by local I mean a radius of no more than 70 miles from home, if I want to get there and back with no worry about a reserve and not necessarily starting out at 100%. Anything further, and I’d probably take the M235i.

The issue here in the UK is not so much rural vs urban, but more home vs street charging. The danger is that an ‘electric divide’ is opening up between those households who have space to charge their car overnight at home (62% of households in England outside London, and 44% within Greater London) and those who don’t. So that while all the other factors may weigh in favour of an EV people can’t benefit from having one because they can’t charge cheaply and at home.

You can already charge some vehicles to 80% in 15 minutes or less. I believe 80% is the ideal charge for battery life and health regardless. With batteries at 250-350 miles and increasing and charging times decreasing, seeing a 5-10 minute charge good for a few hundred miles isn’t that far out. When charging stations become as commonplace as gas stations, going on long distance trips will be just as convenient as using an ICE vehicle. Charging overnight will be more of an additional convenience for home owners rather than a necessity.

[BMW1983]

Originally Posted by msej449

Showing sales as a percentage isn’t misleading. It reflects the trend which if it continues means EVs will come to dominate domestic car sales. If you want the unit numbers, go do the work yourself - just Google UK SMMT and spend an hour or so extracting what you’re interested in. But if you’re not inclined to do the research then here’s the latest numbers for car sales UK YTD 2023:

Petrol - 58,973
Diesel - 5,280
BEV - 17,294
PHEV - 9,109

I’d admit my math is poor but to round it up to whole units, that seems to work out as a ratio of 17:5 of petrol to fully electric new cars being sold YTD.

It’s really weird. People like me who are BMW enthusiasts and currently own a BMW petrol performance model aren’t narrow-minded green zealots. Yet we’re attacked because we simply explain the reality of the market out there, which is that for more and more people, an EV as a second car is a very cost-effective choice. And for more and more people an Ev as their only transport is increasingly a serious option.

Manufacturers are moving to offer more EV vehicles because they can sell them. Because people want them. People like me, who are entirely open to what drivetrain they have but after taking a look, opt for electric as superior to petroleum. There is no government incentive that tips the cost equation for us in the UK - EV was just the better option when I came to renew.

If people in the US don’t get access to the diversity of models we have in Europe then that’s their loss and a disservice from their domestic manufacturers. And if the charging infrastructure in the US is behind international levels of availability then that’s your problem. All I am doing is reporting back on what happens in a country with a pretty right-wing government where there are no incentives at all to move to EV, and yet people increasingly are opting for them.

I may be incorrect so I apologize but is there not a heavy CO2 tax on petrol/diesel vehicles that would not be present with a BEV? If this is the case then there is an incentive

[Quadruple VANOS]

Originally Posted by jmg

Gross sales volume show which is still the more prevalent, but if you want to show the change in consumer spending habits, you use the change in sales volume over the same period of time. It's a more complete picture to use both, and you can't do projections based on volume alone, it's change in volume that matters.

It's like stock. Volume is important, but a stock being down 21% from last quarter tells us more about the health of that stock.

The relevant flaw here is that there was an attempt to compare the percentages across datapoints. That approach delivered misleading information that falsely implied a mass shift from ICE to BEV when in actuality BEV is still a small portion of private vehicle sales.