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I think this discussion is missing one very important point. For most of the F&I office items, such as the extended service contract (what most think of as extended warranty) and the wheel and tire package (now part of BMW’s platinum combo coverage), if and when you sell the car early, you can get back a pro-rated portion of what you paid (based on mileage or time, whichever gives you back less), less a nominal ($50 usually) admin fee for the termination.
With BMW’s plan that appears to be discussed above (I think they call it ultimate care plus?), where you basically get wear items (clutch, brakes, spark plugs, wiper blades etc.) added to the covered maintenance, you CANNOT terminate early and get a pro-rated refund. So the analysis for this one needs to be different. The typical “the house always wins, so they only offer the product because your expected value as the buyer is negative”-type analysis does not necessarily hold true for the ultimate care plus. Because in BMW’s underwriting, they must be factoring in not only their expected payout based on vehicle, mileage and time, but also their expected percentage of people who will sell the car early and not get a refund. Which allows BMW to still make money, while offering a product with a positive expected value for many buyers.
I always add the $700ish package to add clutch, brakes and spark plugs into the first 3/36 maintenance. I expect the first brake job, and possibly plugs, before 36k. A $700 oem brake job is a no-brainer all day long on these cars (to also get a good chance of getting plugs, and if things go sideways, a clutch within 36k), and if for some reason I lose $700, I won’t be happy but it’s not the end of the world.
Ironically, when I bought my G80, I wanted to do the ultimate care plus out to 5-7 years and something like 70k. Figured 2 brake jobs, maybe 2 sets of plugs, and if luck is terrible, a clutch. It was shockingly expensive, but still a good deal IF I keep the car long enough and drive it enough to get all of those replacements free. And guess what…the F&I manager, as a friend, actually talked me out of it (because I tend to flip cars too quickly, the likelihood of that changes the math so that I’d expect to lose thousands).
In summary, the BMW plan to add wear items to the maintenance coverage can be a solid deal for the customer. But you need to think long and hard about how long you’ll keep the car, and how much you drive it. Otherwise, you would be one of the people that statistically just hand BMW money when you sell the car early.
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