People are really, really not thinking this through. Like at all.
I have been very bullish for a long time that we will not see EV's take over, I can see a relatively even split between EV, Hybrid and ICE in the near future, EV will explode for a short time but then plateau.
I have also been very, very bullish that range is not as big a concern as people make out, the issue, is public charging, though it is tied to range to some degree.
I see the following concerns;
- Charge times are still quite long, it will improve but until down to under 15 minutes, it is a significant barrier
- Folks are feeling the need to be "always topped" because of a combination of range fears (to a degree) but also lack of faith in public charging availability
- Public infrastructure needs to be immense, we need far more chargers than pumps due to a) time it takes to charge and B) range limitations. So a) who is paying for this and b) who is going to actually do it?
- There's also the issue of improved tech, in say 5 or at the very least 10 years, it is highly likely the initial batch of chargers will need to be replaced by newer, faster chargers. This is IMMENSLY expensive once you start considering the sheer scope of this.
I am a ruthless pragmatist, i have no skin in this game other than a) i live near a highway so cleaner the emissions the better and b) i am saddened to lose sports cars to EV.
I don't see how we can convert to EV as quickly as people claim, it reminds me a lot of the AI driving that was going to change the world 5 years ago. I called bullshit then and it looks all but dead. I don't think EV will die but I strongly feel hybrid will have a role for a long, long time, as in decades.