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      01-14-2022, 08:46 PM   #32
eljay
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Germanauto View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by bquatt View Post
The laws of supply and demand say that as demand decreases, the the price shall also decrease all else held consistent. I am not sure how prices would increase as demand slows.
Reduced petroleum production due to reduced demand, alongside fewer gas stations as a result.
Yes, this can swing both ways if OPEC decides to sit on a glut of oil and squeeze every last dollar out of it by simply not producing. But all the sudden, that's a short-term play.
If they do that, EVs become cheaper and cheaper and owners will switch to lower cost fuel, so they will have to keep prices artificially high while sitting on ever-growing reserve of oil until the last ICE owner flips them the finger and jumps into his flying electric car (meaning: it will take a while).
OPEC will certainly find new markets in developing countries to dump the excess oil supply.
It's a fine balance and they know how to play the game.
But OPEC report in 2016 predicted 1% EV adoption by 2040.
Bloomberg report puts 2021 at 7.2%. So, oil producers will need to find other customers sooner than thought and I don't think they can extort a continuous stable high price because there is now a viable alternative.
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