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Originally Posted by KoenG
I believe that your analysis makes perfect sense in a transition phase. During such a period there are all kind of arguments specific to the transition at play that vanish after the transition. Like now, I wonder whether BMW didn't price the i4/X a bit too low seen the immediate delivery delays because of the production start up and covid situation?
Of course, in Europe we mostly are convinced by now that the ICE and hybrids will get eradicated around 2035. As from then, countries seem to only allow new BEV or hydrogen alternatives. In the US, apparently, there is an overall conviction that the buyer continues to choose his preference and ICE will remain one of those options. I don't believe that, the remaining market will become too small to justify the massive costs in keeping ICE alive and the transition will happen irrespective but a few years later then.
So when there is a time in the future where all cars have become BEV, they will have a lower retail price. Wether that's at benefit of the individual buyer or an opportunity to increase taxes for the govenment is still to be seen. It will most probably never become a higher margin for the manufacturer. But for we are that far, manufacturers will price their BEV as high as possible to balance the prices with ICE/hybrid and backlog in their production plants.
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KoenG Are you familiar with the mainstream automotive industry forecasting data? The data used by carmakers and other companies in the business? 2035 is not the end of ICE/hybrid in Europe, according to those people. Please don't believe me. Rather, believe the people who are the preeminent automotive industry forecasters.