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I had an E90 with winter tires in Canada for a few years, generally I agree with you, you will be fine. But winter tires with an all wheel drive is certainly the next step above a RWD car. An AWD set up with winters will absolutely impress you, and make winter even more fun! I would definitely lean towards an all wheel drive M3 in living in the north despite the extra cost. There will be a situation, say every other winter, where you'll be able to say "there is no way I would have made it thru that in a RWD car." Maybe not every year, but it will happen.
I personally think that the AWD car on the highway in heavy rain may be a little safer too, just my opinion.
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