Quote:
Originally Posted by tracer bullet
I predict much longer. EV's are the future but haven't taken over yet. I give it a decade for them to even hit 50%, the rest being hybrids and ICE's. It'll be a while before the cheapest cars have become EV's and even then it'll be another 10 years for the stations to start to plummet and 10 more before they become like horse supplies are today. So... 2050, 2060.
Obviously everyone's got an opinion.
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The ICE supply chains are already starting to collapse, see chip shortages (and no, that's not just covid; it's part of the auto industry's self-imposed JIT bomb)
Let's say you own a company that makes gas tanks for ICE cars ... what would you be doing right now: planning on business as usual for the next decade or planning to do something else before your orders collapse?
Ok, now, what % of parts do you think ICE auto makers actually make?
Whatever that vendor % is, that's what's starting to collaspe.
And then the oil, gas, & refinery supply chain will be a whole other problem ...
ICE is about to get REALLY inconvenient ... not an opinion, it's already happening.