Quote:
Originally Posted by Roch M4
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Um nope.
(1.) Of course legacy ICE maker wants more ICE.
It's like if you've played hockey for 15 years and then everyone switches to lacrosse and they ask you your opinion, what are you gonna say?
"oh yeah sure, let's ditch everything i'm good at for that new stuff I suck at!"
(2.) ICE MFRs require a massive global supply chain
More specifically, vendors require DEPENDABLE demand. Anyone who thinks this chip shortage is just a one-off covid thing doesn't understand the automotive supply chain - it's because automakers are using 2000s-era chips and didn't give their suppliers a dependable forecast and/or sign volume contracts. Chips are the first of many many many many (did I say many?) ICE supply shortages to come; the chip shortage is simply the first ICE supply chain shortage. Once ICE vendors start pivoting to BEV parts the ICE supply chains will contract beyond recovery.
(3.) Gasoline requires a massive global supply chain
More specifically, refineries require DEPENDABLE demand. Anyone who thinks the US south's gas shortage was a one-off covid thing doesn't understand the petroleum supply chain. As gas consumption starts contracting, gas stations - which have knife edge business models - will start to tank ... as they start balking at X # of gallons supply contracts, refineries will start pulling back on supply ... this'll cause more gas stations to go tits up, etc. Further, you know who wants the quick-stop business gas stations have? Amazon. Walmart. Target. Amazon's "just walk out" and convenience store pilots aren't just for a few locations; they want the US's convenience store business and they DON'T want gas sales. Amazon ain't no dummies - they know the minute gas supply gets to be a pain in the ass consumers will flock to BEVs ... but then they'll want a better convenience store experience and BAM! Amazon Go!
(4.) The US is 16% of BMW's Global sales
Legislative action in China and the EU is already promising a defacto ban on ICE by 2035, and serious limits by 2030. Even if the US only wanted ICE, which large auto makers would be willing & able to build a dying product line for a one-off market post-peak-gasoline? None of them.
(5.) Convenience is the mother of all consumer behavior
Charging in your garage is just more convenient. Home delivery is just more convenient. WFH is just more convenient. Uber is just more convenient. Amazon (and Walmart & Target & Shopify) has been able to build quite a bit of infrastructure pretty fast. Anybody who thinks the grid won't find a way to deliver product to meet consumer demand wasn't around in the 70s when air conditioning started getting popular. The problem isn't building generation capacity, it's predictable demand ... which stops being a problem when the majority of new cars sold are BEVs.
Like it or not, the BEV cake is baked and now we all gotta eat it.